Two OCR cuts expected, Trump trade war could push cash rate lower

April 2 will be a key date for markets as US President Donald Trump will announce a fresh round of reciprocal tariffs, ratcheting up the global trade war. (Image: Getty)

Rebecca Howard

Mon, 31 Mar 2025

Economists expect a 25-basis point rate cut in April and May, and some think it should go even lower, particularly given the looming trade war. The official cash rate (OCR) is currently 3.75%, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forecast in February shows it reaching a low of 3.10% in December this year. The next decision is scheduled for April 9 and will include updated forecasts. Kiwibank economists said it’s hard to argue against current market pricing, but they still think the OCR should go to 3%. &l...

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