Dairy demand holds but supply surge may sink Fonterra's $10/kgMS forecast

New Zealand has moved past its peak milk production month. (Image: Fonterra)

Thu, 06 Nov 2025

Expectations are growing that Fonterra Co-operative Group will have to cut its farmgate milk price below $10 per kilogram of milk solids as increased supply weighs on global dairy prices.Wednesday’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction was the sixth consecutive event where prices slipped, with whole milk powder – the biggest influence on the payout – now 20% off its 12-month peak back in May.Demand on the platform remains relatively firm, but increased milk supply in key dairy-producing nations, such as NZ, Europe and the United S...

Subscribe to BusinessDesk

Stay informed on business, government and financial developments across New Zealand.

Deeply researched, twice-edited and fact-checked news
Annual subscribers also receive a complimentary subscription to The Wall Street Journal
Personalised email news alerts, plus gift up to 5 stories a month to non-subscribers

You can cancel anytime.

We are serious about journalism.

Already a Subscriber ? Sign in here.

Name {{ registerForm.errors.get('name') }}

Email address {{ registerForm.errors.get('email') }}

Phone Number {{ registerForm.errors.get('phone') }}

Job Title {{ registerForm.errors.get('title') }}

Password Minimum password length of 8 characters.
Require at least one upper and lowercase, numeric, and special character. {{ registerForm.errors.get('password') }}

Repeat password {{ registerForm.errors.get('password_confirmation') }}

We had trouble validating your card. It's possible your card provider is preventing us from charging the card. Please contact your card provider or customer support.

Credit Card

Cardholder's name

{{ __(plans[index].name) | capitalize }} {{ plans[index].attributes.old_price | currency }} {{ plans[index].price | currency }}

All subscriptions auto renew but are easy to cancel.

I Accept The Terms Of Service

{{ registerForm.errors.get('terms') }}

Tax: {{ taxAmount(selectedPlan) | currency }}

Total Price Including Tax: {{ priceWithTax(selectedPlan) | currency }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerSeat ? '/ '+ spark.seatName : '' }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerTeam ? '/ '+ __('teams.team') : '' }} / {{ __(selectedPlan.interval) | capitalize }}