‘High risk of invasion’ US President Joe Biden warned overnight Russia was on the brink of invading Ukraine within the next several days and that tit-for-tat shelling in the Donbas region near the Russian border was a false flag operation Russia would use as a cover for an invasion. He said there was a very high risk of an invasion as his secretary of state Anthony Blinken made a last ditch appeal in the United Nations early this morning for Russia to pull back. 

Russia’s ‘military-technical’ response Russia responded it was prepared to take “measures of a military-technical nature” because Nato had not pulled back from Ukraine’s borders and US arms were still flowing into the Ukraine. The comments from the Russian Defence Ministry came as 1,000 US troops arrived in Poland and other US combat troops were redeployed from western Europe to Romania. 

‘Provocations are happening’ A spokesman for Russian president Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, described the shelling yesterday as a major concern. “We have warned many times that Ukraine’s excessive concentration of its armed forces next to the line of contact, along with the possibility of provocations, could be highly dangerous. And now we can see these provocations are happening,” Peskov said overnight.

Safe havens appeal US stocks fell another 1-2% by 7.15 am NZT as global investors looked for safer havens in US Government bonds. European stocks fell almost 1%. The yield on the key US 10 year Treasury bond fell six basis points to back below 2.0% for the first time in a week. Buyers of the safe-haven asset pushed up prices of Treasuries, which move inversely to yields. The NZ$ rose over 67 USc overnight for the first time in three weeks because lower US interest rates make our currency look relatively more attractive, given the Reserve Bank is expected to put up our official cash rate again next Wednesday.

Protest supported A poll taken earlier this week of over 500 voters found 30% supported the anti-mandate protests around Parliament, including 44% of those aged 35-44. The Horizon Poll reported in Stuff this morning was published as the Grounded Kiwis protest group of expats trying to get home released the results of an online survey it did showing 80% believed the MIQ system of tight border controls had affected their mental health, including anxiety, depression and panic attacks. (Newshub)

Australia relaxing The protests continue here as both New South Wales and Victoria announced yesterday they would remove most covid restrictions on gathering limits ahead of next Monday’s reopening of Australia’s borders. Arrivals will only need to self-isolate for a day or two until they can show a negative RAT result. Only Western Australia has adopted the New Zealand approach of making arrivals self-isolate for seven days until they can show a negative test result.

Big health strike Over 10,000 health workers decided late yesterday to strike in support of stalled pay negotiations with DHBs. (TVNZ).

Fresh on BusinessDesk this morning

Oliver Lewis reports the govt is not pulling the housing affordability lever of making councils rate on land values, rather than capital values.

Brent Melville reports CoreLogic’s finding that housing affordability has worsened to a record-high 8.8 times income. 

Paul McBeth’s weekly column is on which covid-affected businesses should be saved.