One-in-three chance Reserve Bank will need to hike after inflation number

One-in-three chance Reserve Bank will need to hike after inflation number
RBNZ governor Adrian Orr is probably worried about inflation. (Image: NZME)
Cameron Bagrie
No amount of sugar-coating around a falling headline inflation rate to 4% can hide the reality. Wednesday's inflation number composition should worry the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.Non-tradeable inflation – the domestic inflation pulse – came in at 5.8%, 0.5 percentage points above the Reserve Bank of NZ's (RBNZ) February estimate.Service sector inflation, influenced by the labour market, accelerated to 5.3% from 4.7%. Inflation, excluding food and petrol, was unchanged at 4.1%. Core inflation appears to be running around 4...

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Updated: RBNZ turns more dovish
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Updated: RBNZ turns more dovish

The latest forecast imply two more rate cuts to come. 

RBNZ cuts to 3%, sees cash rate reaching 2.5%
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RBNZ cuts to 3%, sees cash rate reaching 2.5%

RBNZ cuts by 25bps but thought about 50bps. 

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Government keeps AA+ credit rating, Fitch warns to keep ‘culture of fiscal responsibility

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Staff reporters 18 Aug 2025