GDP forecasting a covid crapshoot

The latest GDP figures will be released on Thursday.

Tue, 16 Mar 2021

Economists' forecasts of how much the economy grew or shrank in the December quarter look more like stabs in the dark than usual because of the covid factor.They range anywhere from growth of 0.5% to a shrinking of 0.3% – as ANZ Bank economist Miles Workman said in his preview: "Forecasting GDP hasn't got any easier as the impacts of lockdown abate."That follows a 14% spike in the September quarter, the largest ever quarterly increase, but that followed a revised 11% drop in the June quarter.Small wonder Workman said any...

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