Goldilocks and the bear market

Markets are hoping Goldilocks is here: the combination of receding inflation and a soft landing for the global economy. (Image: Getty)

Cameron Bagrie

Thu, 19 Jan 2023

Inflation is one of the key defining themes of 2023. The inflationary thief needs to be sent back to jail. Many are predicting a recession. I hope central banks get on top of it in an orderly fashion. The reality is that central banks will likely keep hiking rates until something breaks, markets throw their toys out of the cot, core inflation pressures decline as capacity pressures ease, another easing cycle kicks off and we're back into the 30-year playbook. Financial markets are expecting falling interest rates from late 2023 an...

Subscribe to BusinessDesk

Stay informed on business, government and financial developments across New Zealand.

Deeply researched, twice-edited and fact-checked news
Annual subscribers also receive a complimentary subscription to The Wall Street Journal
Personalised email news alerts, plus gift up to 5 stories a month to non-subscribers

You can cancel anytime with two clicks, an email or a phone call.
Find out more.

We are serious about journalism.

Already a Subscriber ? Sign in here.

Name {{ registerForm.errors.get('name') }}

Email address {{ registerForm.errors.get('email') }}

Phone Number {{ registerForm.errors.get('phone') }}

Job Title {{ registerForm.errors.get('title') }}

Password Minimum password length of 8 characters.
Require at least one upper and lowercase, numeric, and special character. {{ registerForm.errors.get('password') }}

Repeat password {{ registerForm.errors.get('password_confirmation') }}

We had trouble validating your card. It's possible your card provider is preventing us from charging the card. Please contact your card provider or customer support.

Credit Card

Cardholder's name

{{ __(plans[index].name) | capitalize }} {{ plans[index].attributes.old_price | currency }} {{ plans[index].price | currency }}

All subscriptions auto renew but are easy to cancel.

I Accept The Terms Of Service

{{ registerForm.errors.get('terms') }}

Tax: {{ taxAmount(selectedPlan) | currency }}

Total Price Including Tax: {{ priceWithTax(selectedPlan) | currency }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerSeat ? '/ '+ spark.seatName : '' }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerTeam ? '/ '+ __('teams.team') : '' }} / {{ __(selectedPlan.interval) | capitalize }}

Infrastructure

Eaqub: Pipeline hits $275b but certainty stops at next election

Economist highlights drop-off in planned infra spending after 2026.

Dileepa Fonseka 5:00am

Retail

ForBarr sticks to underperform on The Warehouse Group

Analysts say they need to see tangible improvement.

Rebecca Howard 5:00am

ForBarr sticks to underperform on The Warehouse Group

Finance

Big banks eye warnings on legacy Open Banking technology

Their interest comes with dawn of API-led Open Banking just weeks away.

Andy Macdonald 5:00am

Big banks eye warnings on legacy Open Banking technology

Sponsored

Cybersecurity skills gap leaving Kiwi businesses at risk - report

A cybersecurity skills shortage is creating additional cyber risks, according to a new global report.

Fortinet

Sponsored

Spark’s partner strategy sets the bar for innovation

Spark

More Economy

Economy

No obstacles to RBNZ rate cut next week

The RBNZ is expected to cut the OCR to 2.25% and leave the door open for more.

Rebecca Howard 18 Nov 2025

Economy

Food prices lift 4.7% in 12 months to October

Food prices increased by 4.7% in the 12 months to October, although they fell for the second consecutive month, down 0.3% due to lower vegetable prices.Higher prices for the grocery food group were the largest contributor, up 4.9% on an annual basis, while meat, poultry and fish...

Staff reporters 17 Nov 2025