How low will the RBNZ go?

Most economists expect neutral to come sooner. (Image: Getty)

Tue, 20 Aug 2024

Data over the past few days vindicates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate cut, but how low will it go? Last week, the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 5.25%, signalling a further 50bps of OCR cuts by year-end.It then forecasts a further 100 bps of cuts over 2025 (3.85% OCR by year-end) and an end-point of just below 2.98% in 3Q 2027. This was a massive shift from its May forecasts and is largely down to weaker-than-expected growth based on so-called “high-frequency data&rd...

Unlock all stories free for 10 days

Stay informed on business, government and financial developments across New Zealand.

Deeply researched, twice-edited and fact-checked news
Annual subscribers also receive a complimentary subscription to The Wall Street Journal
Personalised email news alerts, plus gift up to 5 stories a month to non-subscribers

We won’t charge for 10 days. You can cancel anytime with two clicks, an email or a phone call. Find out more.

We are serious about journalism.

Name {{ registerForm.errors.get('name') }}

Email address {{ registerForm.errors.get('email') }}

Phone Number {{ registerForm.errors.get('phone') }}

Job Title {{ registerForm.errors.get('title') }}

Password Minimum password length of 8 characters.
Require at least one upper and lowercase, numeric, and special character. {{ registerForm.errors.get('password') }}

Repeat password {{ registerForm.errors.get('password_confirmation') }}

We had trouble validating your card. It's possible your card provider is preventing us from charging the card. Please contact your card provider or customer support.

Credit Card

Cardholder's name

{{ __(plans[index].interval) | capitalize }} {{ plans[index].attributes.old_price | currency }} {{ plans[index].price | currency }}

You will be charged in 10 days unless you cancel beforehand.
We will remind you three times before charging you.
All subscriptions auto renew but are easy to cancel.

I Accept The Terms Of Service

{{ registerForm.errors.get('terms') }}

Tax: {{ taxAmount(selectedPlan) | currency }}

Total Price Including Tax: {{ priceWithTax(selectedPlan) | currency }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerSeat ? '/ '+ spark.seatName : '' }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerTeam ? '/ '+ __('teams.team') : '' }} / {{ __(selectedPlan.interval) | capitalize }}