It's the recession that isn't a recession

Higher unemployment is the sacrifice we'll have to make to keep inflation contained. (Image: Getty)

Sat, 17 Dec 2022

The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) projections were surprisingly upbeat. It seems that surpluses are around the corner, despite projections of a recession.Here are the key assumptions that make that possible.A recession without a recessionTreasury may be projecting a recession, but the nominal growth projections – which drive tax revenue – are a long way from one. Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) lifts by an average of 6.1% per year over the projection period. That's being driven by inflation, which suppor...

Unlock all stories free for 10 days

Stay informed on business, government and financial developments across New Zealand.

Deeply researched, twice-edited and fact-checked news
Annual subscribers also receive a complimentary subscription to The Wall Street Journal
Personalised email news alerts, plus gift up to 5 stories a month to non-subscribers

We won’t charge for 10 days. You can cancel anytime with two clicks, an email or a phone call. Find out more.

We are serious about journalism.

Name {{ registerForm.errors.get('name') }}

Email address {{ registerForm.errors.get('email') }}

Phone Number {{ registerForm.errors.get('phone') }}

Job Title {{ registerForm.errors.get('title') }}

Password Minimum password length of 8 characters.
Require at least one upper and lowercase, numeric, and special character. {{ registerForm.errors.get('password') }}

Repeat password {{ registerForm.errors.get('password_confirmation') }}

We had trouble validating your card. It's possible your card provider is preventing us from charging the card. Please contact your card provider or customer support.

Credit Card

Cardholder's name

{{ __(plans[index].interval) | capitalize }} {{ plans[index].attributes.old_price | currency }} {{ plans[index].price | currency }}

You will be charged in 10 days unless you cancel beforehand.
We will remind you three times before charging you.
All subscriptions auto renew but are easy to cancel.

I Accept The Terms Of Service

{{ registerForm.errors.get('terms') }}

Tax: {{ taxAmount(selectedPlan) | currency }}

Total Price Including Tax: {{ priceWithTax(selectedPlan) | currency }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerSeat ? '/ '+ spark.seatName : '' }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerTeam ? '/ '+ __('teams.team') : '' }} / {{ __(selectedPlan.interval) | capitalize }}