It's the recession that isn't a recession

Higher unemployment is the sacrifice we'll have to make to keep inflation contained. (Image: Getty)

Sat, 17 Dec 2022

The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) projections were surprisingly upbeat. It seems that surpluses are around the corner, despite projections of a recession.Here are the key assumptions that make that possible.A recession without a recessionTreasury may be projecting a recession, but the nominal growth projections – which drive tax revenue – are a long way from one. Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) lifts by an average of 6.1% per year over the projection period. That's being driven by inflation, which suppor...

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