RBNZ's OCR cut decision day: Forecasts for 25bps, but 50bps in play

RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby. (Image: NZME)

Wed, 08 Oct 2025

A 25-basis point cut is baked in, so the real drama on Wednesday is whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand doubles down with 50.The official cash rate (OCR) is currently at 3% and the Reserve Bank of NZ’s (RBNZ) own forecasts see it hitting 2.5% by year-end. The decision is due at 2pm in Wellington. The median expectation is for 25 basis points on Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg poll of 25 economists. That said, 10 of 25 picked 50bps. Market pricing puts a 40% chance on a 50bps cut. Tuesday’s business opinion survey f...

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