RBNZ's OCR cut decision day: Forecasts for 25bps, but 50bps in play

RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby. (Image: NZME)

Wed, 08 Oct 2025

A 25-basis point cut is baked in, so the real drama on Wednesday is whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand doubles down with 50.The official cash rate (OCR) is currently at 3% and the Reserve Bank of NZ’s (RBNZ) own forecasts see it hitting 2.5% by year-end. The decision is due at 2pm in Wellington. The median expectation is for 25 basis points on Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg poll of 25 economists. That said, 10 of 25 picked 50bps. Market pricing puts a 40% chance on a 50bps cut. Tuesday’s business opinion survey f...

Subscribe to BusinessDesk

Stay informed on business, government and financial developments across New Zealand.

Deeply researched, twice-edited and fact-checked news
Annual subscribers also receive a complimentary subscription to The Wall Street Journal
Personalised email news alerts, plus gift up to 5 stories a month to non-subscribers

You can cancel anytime with two clicks, an email or a phone call.
Find out more.

We are serious about journalism.

Already a Subscriber ? Sign in here.

Name {{ registerForm.errors.get('name') }}

Email address {{ registerForm.errors.get('email') }}

Phone Number {{ registerForm.errors.get('phone') }}

Job Title {{ registerForm.errors.get('title') }}

Password Minimum password length of 8 characters.
Require at least one upper and lowercase, numeric, and special character. {{ registerForm.errors.get('password') }}

Repeat password {{ registerForm.errors.get('password_confirmation') }}

We had trouble validating your card. It's possible your card provider is preventing us from charging the card. Please contact your card provider or customer support.

Credit Card

Cardholder's name

{{ __(plans[index].name) | capitalize }} {{ plans[index].attributes.old_price | currency }} {{ plans[index].price | currency }}

All subscriptions auto renew but are easy to cancel.

I Accept The Terms Of Service

{{ registerForm.errors.get('terms') }}

Tax: {{ taxAmount(selectedPlan) | currency }}

Total Price Including Tax: {{ priceWithTax(selectedPlan) | currency }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerSeat ? '/ '+ spark.seatName : '' }} {{ selectedPlan.type == 'user' && spark.chargesUsersPerTeam ? '/ '+ __('teams.team') : '' }} / {{ __(selectedPlan.interval) | capitalize }}