Unemployment expected to edge up to 5.3% in 3Q as labour market steadies

Wage inflation is expected to ease slightly. (Image: Getty)

Mon, 03 Nov 2025

Economists are expecting a slight rise in unemployment to 5.3% and a soft labour showing signs of stabilising when the latest statistics are released on Wednesday. They also anticipate minimal employment growth and lower annual wage inflation of around 2%. ASB senior economist Mark Smith predicted hiring will be about 35,000 jobs shy of the late 2023 peak.Stats NZ will release the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS), the Quarterly Employment Survey and Labour Cost Index for the third quarter ending September.The BNZ, ANZ and Westpac econo...

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