Bond markets predict recession

Bond markets predict recession
Fisher Funds’ David McLeish said rate hikes may misfire. (Image: Fisher Funds)
Jenny Ruth
There’s a famous saying that the share market has predicted nine of the past five recessions, a joke attributed to Nobel-prize-winning US economist Paul Samuelson.However, bond markets tend to be much better predictors and yield curves around the world have been distinctly negative, where shorter-dated securities yield more than longer-dated ones, for some time now.In New Zealand, the two-year swap rate ended at 5% on Friday and the 10-year government bond yield was 76 basis points lower at 4.24% – those rates have fallen sharply re...

More Finance

Court funding miss ‘undermines market confidence’
Finance

Court funding miss ‘undermines market confidence’

Plenary and Infrastructure NZ wrote to ministers over PPP ‘disappointment’.

Phasing out $6b capital layer unlikely to dent banks’ ratings
Finance

Phasing out $6b capital layer unlikely to dent banks’ ratings

Banks’ credit ratings likely unmoved if Additional Tier 1 capital phased out. 

‘Unusual’ volume of CCCFA changes in focus
Finance

‘Unusual’ volume of CCCFA changes in focus

Select committee mulls proposed changes to CCCFA, to report recommendations Oct 20.

Andy Macdonald 16 Sep 2025
Banks revise economic outlooks for Q2 GDP contraction
Finance

Banks revise economic outlooks for Q2 GDP contraction

Economists now see NZ's GDP contracting in Q2, but doubt a technical recession in Q3.

Andy Macdonald 15 Sep 2025