Bond markets predict recession

Bond markets predict recession
Fisher Funds’ David McLeish said rate hikes may misfire. (Image: Fisher Funds)
Jenny Ruth
There’s a famous saying that the share market has predicted nine of the past five recessions, a joke attributed to Nobel-prize-winning US economist Paul Samuelson.However, bond markets tend to be much better predictors and yield curves around the world have been distinctly negative, where shorter-dated securities yield more than longer-dated ones, for some time now.In New Zealand, the two-year swap rate ended at 5% on Friday and the 10-year government bond yield was 76 basis points lower at 4.24% – those rates have fallen sharply re...

More Finance

No longer 'boutique' Generate is executing, CEO says
Finance

No longer 'boutique' Generate is executing, CEO says

The fund manager is now the seventh-largest KiwiSaver provider.

ANZ half-year profit surges on non-cash gains
Finance

ANZ half-year profit surges on non-cash gains

Cash earnings were flat, and net interest margin rose slightly.

Pattrick Smellie 08 May 2025
BNZ preserves margins on flat half-year
Finance

BNZ preserves margins on flat half-year

BNZ outranks its Australian cousins for customer preference.

Pattrick Smellie 07 May 2025
Westpac's NZ net interest margin expands again
Finance

Westpac's NZ net interest margin expands again

Net interest margins rose in NZ, but shrank for the group as a whole.

Pattrick Smellie 05 May 2025