Baked-in big spending is the Budget's biggest threat

In the Budget, Grant Robertson asserted we'll be back in surplus by 2025. Yeah, right. (Image: Dan Brunskill)

Thu, 26 May 2022

Are financial forecasts really that credible any more? That's a question I’m asking myself after looking at the budget forecasts. The Treasury does some great work pulling together the budget and the associated forecasts. New Zealand releases an enviable amount of world-class budget information. But that information now faces credibility challenges because spending projections are becoming ridiculously disconnected from recent spending reality. Pencil in deficits if recent spending trends continue, which looks like...

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