Treasury's potential growth assessment is crucial

Treasury has been steadily revising down its productivity forecasts since Budget 2023. (Image: NZME)

Mon, 16 Dec 2024

The upcoming Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) has the usual advance commentary. Expectations of a return to surplus are being pushed out a year. However, they are still assumed to be achieved within the forecast period because another year has been added, the trajectory for debt will be higher with more bonds issued, and there is pending tension pulling together the 2025 Budget, which will be difficult. One set of numbers matters the most. And watch the land mines.The key numberA critical number will be where Treasury asse...

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