Quarterly Operational Update

MKTUPDTE
Tue, Oct 17 2023 08:30 am

Quarterly Operational Update for the three months ended 30 September 2023.

QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS

> FIRST GENERATION FROM KAIWERA DOWNS 1 - Contributed 9GWh in the quarter, full operation expected in October
> SUCCESSFUL TRIAL MIGRATION TO GENTRACK - With over 50% of customers now migrated
> STRONG ELECTRICITY YIELD GROWTH - Through C&I contract repricing on a sustained higher forward price

COMMENTARY

MARKET SUMMARY

Higher national inflows during the quarter were reflected in spot electricity prices averaging $132/MWh in Auckland.  Forward prices remained high at $152/MWh in Auckland for financial years 2024 to 2026 as at 30 September 2023.

LOW WAIKATO HYDRO GENERATION WITH 25TH PERCENTILE INFLOWS, PARTIALLY OFFSET BY HIGHER WIND GENERATION

Dry conditions with 25th percentile inflows in the Waikato catchment over the quarter saw Q1 hydro generation reduce to 1,144GWh (311GWh, 21% lower than PCP). Wind generation was higher at 529GWh (129GWh, 32% higher than PCP), primarily a result of a full quarter of generation from the Turitea South wind farm (86GWh). Kaiwera Downs 1 first generation occurred in August 2023, adding 9GWh to the quarter with full operation expected by the end of October. Commercial & Industrial yield growth (physical and end-user CfDs) was $18/MWh higher for the quarter relative to PCP because of contract repricing to a sustained higher electricity forward curve. 

RETAIL CONNECTION GROWTH DESPITE RECENT FOCUS ON CUSTOMER MIGRATION

Electricity connections were 10k higher than PCP but 6k lower than Q4FY23, with the quarterly reduction primarily due to a focus on successfully delivering on customer migration. After a successful trial migration in the quarter, over 50% of all customers previously on SAP have successfully migrated to the Gentrack billing system. Mass Market yield for the quarter was $156/MWh, $2/MWh higher than PCP largely attributed to the change in customer mix. Telco connections were 34k higher than PCP, primarily driven by the inclusion of 25k NOW customers. Average rolling 12-month churn has stabilised in the last few months at 16%, and remained flat relative to PCP.

NATIONAL DEMAND HIGHER FROM URBAN DEMAND OFFSETTING LOWER INDUSTRIAL DEMAND

National demand was 0.5% higher for the quarter relative to PCP primarily driven by urban cities and partially offset by lower industrial demand. Lower industrial demand was primarily driven by Cyclone Gabrielle impact on the Pan Pac timber mill.


[For Operational Statistics and Charts, please refer to the attached]


Announcement PDF


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