ASB Bank predicts official cash rate will hit 4.25% after strong June quarter

ASB Bank predicts official cash rate will hit 4.25% after strong June quarter
ASB bank was alone in the call, with the other large trading banks all sticking to previous forecasts of a 4% terminal cash rate. (Image: Dan Brunskill)
Dan Brunskill
A strong rebound in the New Zealand economy during the June quarter has prompted ASB to lift its official cash rate (OCR) forecast to a peak of 4.25% in February 2023. NZ’s economy expanded 1.7% in the June quarter, bouncing back from a negative quarter faster than many economists had predicted.Statistics NZ said the services industry was the main contributor, expanding 2.7% as covid restrictions lifted and international visitors started spending on recreational activities.The quarterly growth means NZ has avoided a technical recessi...

More Economy

Manufacturing activity has contracted for 22 consecutive months
Economy

Manufacturing activity has contracted for 22 consecutive months

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector contracted in December, marking the first time in the survey’s history that all 12 months were in contraction. The seasonally adjusted Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for December was 45.9, up from 45.2 in November but still well below...

Bank economists expect OCR rises in 2026
Economy

Bank economists expect OCR rises in 2026

‘A number closer to four takes the cash rate to neutral,’ says BNZ's Stephen Toplis. 

Westpac records soft December retail spending
Economy

Westpac records soft December retail spending

Despite a slight lift, Westpac data points to a soft end of year for household spending.Westpac’s retail tracker, released on Thursday, showed spending on Westpac-issued credit and debit cards was up 2% in December compared to last year.  Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod...

Staff reporters 16 Jan 2025
Price shakeup for cigarette brand
Retail

Price shakeup for cigarette brand

Cigarette prices typically go up each year. Not in this case.

Oliver Lewis 16 Jan 2025