Budget forecasts are no sure thing

Budget forecasts are no sure thing
BusinessDesk analysed the accuracy of almost a decade's worth of Budget forecasts delivered in the period from 2011-2019.
Andy Fyers
When the Budget is unveiled it will come with a raft of forecasts for the economy, national income and balance sheet.There's a tendency to report these forecasts as though they are set in stone.So, it is worth keeping in mind that all economic forecasts come with a high degree of uncertainty. To get a sense of the margin of error that you might want to factor into the Budget outlook, BusinessDesk analysed the accuracy of almost a decade's worth of Budget forecasts delivered in the period from 2011-2019.Many of the forecasts deliver...

More Economy

How to Be Wrong: summer reading for the PM
Economy

How to Be Wrong: summer reading for the PM

Advice on leading for innovation, threats to democracy, gangs, and more.

Pattrick Smellie 28 Nov 2025
RBNZ officials not against more transparency, just cautious
Economy

RBNZ officials not against more transparency, just cautious

The key is that any changes add value, says Assistant Governor Karen Silk.

Rebecca Howard 28 Nov 2025
‘Looking up’: Recovery taking hold as business confidence hits 11-year high
Economy

‘Looking up’: Recovery taking hold as business confidence hits 11-year high

Business confidence jumped another nine points from 58 to 67 in November, the highest level in 11 years, the ANZ Business Outlook survey for November shows.“Things are looking up!” said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner.“Out of a hole, admittedly,” she added.When interpreting qu...

Staff reporters 27 Nov 2025
Rodger Finlay new RBNZ chair, Rhiannon McKinnon to board
Economy

Rodger Finlay new RBNZ chair, Rhiannon McKinnon to board

Finlay is expected to deliver increased accountability and transparency.

Rebecca Howard 27 Nov 2025