Preview: the labour market is tight, but times are changing

Preview: the labour market is tight, but times are changing
The unemployment rate is tipped to rise. (Image: Getty)
Rebecca Howard
This week’s jobs data will show the labour market was tight in the fourth quarter, but most economists now expect the central bank to take its foot off the hiking accelerator as a recession looms. The official cash rate has gone from 0.25% to 4.25% in 18 months and up until recently the central bank had been expected to lift rates another 75 bps to 5% in February to curb inflation.  What changed? There were tentative signs that annual inflation is leveling off after it was 7.2% in the December quarter, unchanged f...

More Economy

How to Be Wrong: summer reading for the PM
Economy

How to Be Wrong: summer reading for the PM

Advice on leading for innovation, threats to democracy, gangs, and more.

Pattrick Smellie 28 Nov 2025
RBNZ officials not against more transparency, just cautious
Economy

RBNZ officials not against more transparency, just cautious

The key is that any changes add value, says Assistant Governor Karen Silk.

Rebecca Howard 28 Nov 2025
‘Looking up’: Recovery taking hold as business confidence hits 11-year high
Economy

‘Looking up’: Recovery taking hold as business confidence hits 11-year high

Business confidence jumped another nine points from 58 to 67 in November, the highest level in 11 years, the ANZ Business Outlook survey for November shows.“Things are looking up!” said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner.“Out of a hole, admittedly,” she added.When interpreting qu...

Staff reporters 27 Nov 2025
Rodger Finlay new RBNZ chair, Rhiannon McKinnon to board
Economy

Rodger Finlay new RBNZ chair, Rhiannon McKinnon to board

Finlay is expected to deliver increased accountability and transparency.

Rebecca Howard 27 Nov 2025