What the 'superforecasters' predict for major events

What the 'superforecasters' predict for major events
Only 10% of forecasters say there'll be a general election in Britain before Jan 1, 2024. (Image: Getty)
The Economist
Journalists and commentators like to make predictions about the future using carefully chosen words. Other forecasters prefer the language of numbers. Good Judgment, a forecasting firm, has recruited many such individuals to its team of superforecasters, who work together to offer detailed, specific forecasts. Here are their predictions for events in 2023:Last year's forecasting winnerCongratulations to Jared Leibowich from San Francisco, who has won The Economist's World Ahead 2022 forecasting challenge organised in collabora...

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