Stocks stumble Fear dominated the final hours of trade on US markets on Saturday morning New Zealand time. The Nasdaq fell as much as 3% and closed down 2.8%, while the S&P 500 closed down 1.9%, near its lows. News emerged in late trade that US and Russian authorities had warned both sets of citizens to get out of Ukraine before any military action, which some fear will commence once the Winter Olympics has finished.
Nearing US$100/bbl Oil prices rose 4% over the weekend to US$97 a barrel on concerns a conflict in eastern Europe could disrupt oil and gas supplies from Russia to Europe, or that financial sanctions likely to be imposed would disrupt markets. Some have forecast oil will rise to US$120/bbl in the event of an invasion, which would push NZ petrol prices decisively over NZ$3/litre.
On central bank watch Markets are focused in the next couple of weeks on indications from central banks about how fast and high they’ll raise interest rates to control inflation. The Fed’s minutes from its last policy meeting are due on Wednesday night NZ Time. Goldman Sachs now sees seven rate hikes this year and the CME Fedwatch tool shows 94% of traders see a 50 basis point hike on March 16. Traders here will be watching the Reserve Bank ahead of its decision next Wednesday, where some expect a 50 basis point hike too.
On Ukraine watch Investors will also be watching the smoke signals from various European capitals as diplomats and world leaders try last-ditch talks to avoid a Russian invasion. Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is due to travel to Kyiv and Moscow tonight and tomorrow night to try to broker a solution. American officials see an invasion as imminent. “We are in the window and an invasion could begin – a major military action could begin – by Russia in Ukraine any day now,” Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, told CNN on Sunday. “That includes this coming week before the end of the Olympics,” he said.
Sign o’ the times The Superbowl will be televised early this afternoon NZ time between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams, but a lot of the attention will be on the ads playing during the biggest live television event of the year in the United States. This year crypto businesses have the lion’s share of the ad slots, which can cost up to US$7m for each 30 second slot. Crypto.com, Coinbase and FTX are reported to have bought 20% of the slots in an open slather reminiscent of 2000 when Pets.com aired its sock puppet ad in the Super Bowl and went bust shortly after.
Fresh on BusinessDesk this morning
Oliver Lewis reports that as part of its deal with the Crown to build housing in inner Christchurch, Fletcher Residential appears to be acquiring land at well below market prices
Henry Burrell reports on how Kiwa Digital’s VoiceQ platform was used to dub English over the Korean voices on Squid Game, helping to make it a global smash hit on Netflix.
Denise McNabb reports Former Feltex shareholder Eric Houghton has won a substantial reduction in costs in his long-running court battle for compensation.
