Investors are pricing in recession risk, even if forecasters aren’t sure

Investors are pricing in recession risk, even if forecasters aren’t sure
Higher inflation and mortgage rates are likely to mean less retail spending in the coming year. (Image: Getty)
Dan Brunskill
New Zealand’s benchmark equity index has dropped roughly 15% year-to-date, largely due to higher interest rates, but some sectors appear to have fallen further.Retail stocks, for example, have almost all fallen more than 20% and may reflect investors' pricing in a possible hit to earnings that would come with a recession. Kathmandu’s parent company, KMD Brands, told the market on Wednesday to expect total sales to be roughly $960 million, up about $40m from last year. But the stock is still down more than 25% since the...

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